According to the information provided in the video below, a census is conducted every 10 years as mandated by the Constitution. The speaker suggests that the maps have slightly changed in favor of Trump and the Republican Party for the upcoming 2024 election. They explain that the maps are valid for three cycles before they are redrawn.
The speaker proceeds to analyze the potential electoral map for the 2024 election. They assume that Texas and Florida will vote Republican (red), while Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and all of Maine will vote Democrat (blue). They also predict that Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada will vote Democrat, while Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina will vote Republican.
Based on this analysis, the speaker concludes that if Trump wins the states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, which he won in 2016, he would secure the presidency. These states are considered crucial as they have received funding from Mark Zuckerberg, have elected statewide Republicans, and have more registered Republicans than Democrats in two of the three states.
The speaker asserts that the Democrats are indicting Trump because they fear that the electoral map has shifted in favor of the Republicans. They claim that even without considering Nebraska’s single district, Trump would reach the required 271 electoral votes to win the presidency. The speaker emphasizes that the Democrats are aware of this situation and suggests that the map heavily favors the Republicans in the upcoming election.
Regarding Arizona, the speaker acknowledges that it is a 50-50 state and considers Senator Kyrsten Sinema a formidable Senate candidate if she runs as an independent. However, they express confidence that with a proper get-out-the-vote operation, Arizona will be favorable for Republicans.
The speaker presents their hypothesis that the entire United States election boils down to three states and seven counties. They reiterate that this is why Trump is feared by the Democrats. They clarify that this is not a national election and point out that Pennsylvania, which was previously won by Trump, is a blue state.
The speaker explains that Trump won the 2016 election with a narrow margin across the three states he needed: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They attribute this to the census map favoring the Democrats due to the population growth in the Sun Belt states. However, they argue that the current map benefits the Republicans because Florida has gained significant population and Texas has gained population while states like New York, California, and Illinois have lost population.
The speaker mentions Mark Elias, implying that he knows the Republicans have an advantage with the new map. They also highlight that Trump’s polls have risen and that upper-middle-class white suburban voters are not in favor of over-prosecution, which resonates with Democrats. They quote a person they spoke to who expressed concern about over-prosecution and consider him a swing voter.
In conclusion, the speaker believes that Trump has a high probability of winning the presidency due to the favorable electoral map for Republicans. They argue that the Democrats are aware of this situation and are concerned about their chances of winning the crucial states. The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on specific states rather than trying to win Michigan, Nevada, or Pennsylvania.